Japan s economic recovery in case of Canton in China to become world s second largest economy
Cabinet Office on August 16 released preliminary data show that removing price changes and to a seasonally adjusted basis, Japan s second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.1 Central, 0.4 annual rate of growth, which is Japan 3 quarter economic growth rate has been minimal, far below market expectations of 2.3 annual increase. In dollar terms, the second quarter, real GDP in Japan for the 1.2883 trillion U.S. dollars, lower than China s previously announced second quarter real GDP of 1.3369 trillion U.S. dollars, Japan s economic output has lagged behind in China, let out the world s second largest economy in the world.
On the same day, the Japanese Minister of Economy and Finance Satoshi Arai said that despite the signs of economic growth has slowed, but the introduction of new stimulus measures still too early to say. Then position the Prime Minister Naoto Kan said he would pay close attention to Japan s GDP data, including exchange rates.
Analysts believe that, in Japan the second quarter economic data showed that the recovery of its economy extremely fragile, Er continued strength of the yen threatens Japan s exports expanding the circumstances, Japan s economic recovery Keneng be difficult in recent years the self Wei Chi.
By the weak GDP data, the impact of the Tokyo stock market Nikkei 225 index opened on the 16th setback in nearly 2 to 9096 points, once approaching the year 9066 the lowest point since the wake of Prime Minister of Japan and the Japanese central bank will this week on the day Yuan held the news meeting, the yen exchange rate fell blocked the Nikkei 225 Index immediately narrowed decline and eventually closed down 0.61 , closing at 9196.67 points.
As at Beijing at 22:00 on the on the 16th, the U.S. dollar against the yen exchange rate of ¥ 85.2550.
Extremely fragile economic recovery
Cabinet Office released the data, external demand and domestic demand s contribution to the GDP of Japan were 0.3 and negative 0.2 , in the form of domestic demand in major projects, household consumption expenditure increased by 0.5 from the previous quarter to zero growth in private domestic investment from increased by 0.3 last quarter to 1.3 , government consumption growth rate of 0.6 from the previous quarter, down 0.2 , resulting in domestic demand s contribution to the GDP of 0.5 from the previous quarter to negative 0.2 .
On the export side, Japan s exports increased by 5.9 in the second quarter, an increase of 7 increase in the previous quarter. 4.3 real increase in imports, an increase of 3 sequentially expanded, resulting in the contribution of external demand on GDP from the previous quarter 0.6 to 0.3 .
Life Research Institute in Japan Hideo Kumano, chief economist, said Japan s second quarter GDP data showed the country s economic growth very fragile , I am afraid that next year the Japanese economy, there can be very difficult to self sustaining recovery ; for Japanese yen strong, Japanese companies may be overwhelmed by global competition , therefore restricted the export rise.
National Securities analyst Wang Xiaojun macroeconomic policy to accept China s Zheng Quan newspaper reporters in an interview that Japan, as Chukou oriented Country, You Yu recently by the United States, Europe, major trading partners including weak or slow Jingji influenced due to its export engine, Jian Su, economic recovery trend slowed down. In addition, expected deflation in Japan has been formed, which stimulate domestic demand and economic growth is extremely negative, as domestic demand accounts for about 60 of Japan s GDP. He expects continued strong influence with the Japanese yen and the Japanese deflation, the formation of expectations, Japan s GDP will continue to slow in the third quarter.
Appreciation of the yen to make the economy worse
Second quarter GDP data in Japan after the introduction of Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said that he has asked Finance Minister and Minister of Economy reported the economic situation to him, and pay close attention to the yen.
The last three months, the yen appreciated against the dollar nearly 10 . In the last week, the U.S. dollar against the yen exchange rate is down to 15 year low of 84.72 yen.
Analysts believe that the appreciation of the yen in the three aspects of Japan s domestic economic damage. First of all, also the most deadly in the fight against exports, so far, Japan s economic recovery still in the export of single engine driven, if the export of the engine by the yen s appreciation and extinction , the entire Japanese economy will fall into a quagmire. Nomura Research Institute, according to financial and economic calculations, 1 the number of yen per U.S. dollar decreased by 1 yen, Japan s leading export enterprises 400 profit this fiscal year will decrease by 0.5 . Second, the yen s appreciation will encourage more Japanese companies turned to overseas investment, triggering a new round of Japanese domestic industry hollowing out , and possibly leading directly to the local revenue, higher unemployment and local economy into recession. Finally, the yen s appreciation will exacerbate the problem of deflation in Japan.
Appreciation of the yen s Zhijie impact is to make Japanese imports more expensive commodity prices, Conger down price level, an indirect effect is to make Chukou enterprise performance decline, Guonei hollowing out of Jia Ju, and will lead to unemployment and Shouruzhuangkuang Wu Hua, constraints Touzi and consumption, exacerbating deflation.
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