August 13, Chicago Board of Trade December wheat contract fell 9.5 cents to settle at 7.3425 U.S. dollars per bushel. Since August 5 has hit nearly two year high for wheat have fallen 51 cents, a fall of 6.5 .
However, market participants believe the price drop is not the market participants no longer worry about high temperatures and drought caused by global production of the signal, but profit taking caused by speculative funds.
August 12, the fund bought the CBOT wheat contract of 9000, while on August 13, 5000 wheat contract funds selling. Market participants pointed out: You can see that, since the explosion in wheat futures, the fund more flexible position control. However, these funds go quickly to something else, good news in the current wheat market, continuous background, once again pushed up the price is relatively easy.
Message from the fundamentals of view, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov, said recently that Russia s implementation of the ban on grain exports to control domestic food prices, the government will not until Dec. 31 deadline to lift the ban. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has previously said the ban can be implemented by 2011.
Gengrang markets are worried that other food exporting countries will further Russia s lead.
Russia s ban on grain exports limited impact on food supply, the gap may be added in other countries, but will give him the country from the demonstration effect. At present, the other wheat exporting countries Ukraine has canceled several single export contract and is prepared to decide this week whether to restrict grain exports.
Money Farm President Mike Krueger said that if more countries, the official export restrictions or weather conditions are still not improved, wheat prices will once again test the recent highs.
Persistent bad weather also affect the production of more wheat exporting countries, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected, since the growing season experienced continuous rainfall, the world s second largest wheat exporter, Canada s wheat production this year may be reduced 23 percent, while Canada s latest forecast is also The estimated mid June based on the reduction of 2.4 , and noted that the report may be expected to continue at the next lower.
Canada is different from Central Europe and Russia experienced drought this year s wheat production not only makes a foregone conclusion, will also affect food production in 2011 to prepare for winter wheat planting. It is understood that winter wheat accounted for 90 of Ukraine s wheat output, accounting for about 40 of Russia. European Russia will continue to heat until August 15, after possible cooling, but the lack of rainfall and increased rainfall and temperature may be further reduced to 23 August. Zubkov said that grain production in 2011 in preparation for winter plantings may be reduced 1 / 3, only 12 million hectares, 600 million hectares of land can only be planted in spring next year.
Ukraine s winter wheat seeding usually start from August, Ukraine, weather officials said the lack of water due to soil upper layer, in the end of August can not start before the winter sowing.
Guanhua futures pointed out that the recent international wheat market there is a big uncertainty, funds for the attention, wheat futures will continue for wheat, the short term speculation may still larger.
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