The latest economic data that Asian central banks raise interest rates policy makers had to slow down the pace of: 22, Thailand and Malaysia, data showed gross domestic product (GDP) growth dropped to three quarters of all the lowest level since it slowing economic rebound in Asia have added new evidence for the speculation.
22, the Thai government announced at the end of September in the third quarter, Thailand s GDP grew 6.7 , an increase of 9.2 lower than the second quarter. Similarly, Malaysia also announced data from 22, said the country s GDP in the third quarter the economy grew 5.3 , well below the 8.9 in the second quarter.
The Thai government said the country s economic slowdown was mainly due to lower export growth, while agricultural output declined. Economist at Barclays in Singapore Rahul Alba Jia Liya expected in the next 6 months, Thailand s export growth rate will continue to slow down, and the weaker global demand and the global slowdown in electronics demand cycle into line with the stage. He said, We believe the Bank of Thailand will be taken to achieve gradual normalization of monetary policy.
Bank of Thailand in October to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75 , before the July and August had raised interest rates twice. 22 Economic Development Committee of Thailand said that in order to curb the momentum of economic slowdown, the Bank of Thailand may be lending rates in 2011 remain unchanged.
Malaysia s central bank governor Zedi 22, said the situation of economic slowdown may continue until the first quarter of 2011. She said that the country s economic growth will strengthen in the second quarter of next year, We do not think inflation is a major threat, we believe that the current benchmark interest rate level of economic activity has a positive supporting role. Zedi said.
Although the export engine may be weakened, but Malaysia is still resilient domestic demand, Standard Chartered economist Alvin years in Singapore, said, Data in line with our view that the Malaysian central bank will pause. The next time the central bank of Malaysia policy meeting is scheduled to be held next January. The bank in September and November of the two meetings are to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75 , before the beginning of from 3 was 3 consecutive rate hike.
While the Asian economic growth rate still higher than the rest of the world, but as Ireland became the second country to seek relief in the euro zone, the investor s fears resurface; At the same time the Fed started the quantitative easing policy after another, from Asia to decision makers in many countries in South America that the Fed might move against the dollar and trigger capital flows to emerging markets.
12 Thai government officials said, is still worried about the baht s rise. Earlier this month, the baht hit a 13 year high. The Thai government last month to cancel the debt of foreign investors to invest in Thailand, 15 of the proceeds of tax exemption, the Bank of Thailand officials said the Oct. 21, the bank study further measures to reduce the volatility of the baht.
Malaysia 22, reiterated the intention to restrict capital flows. Over the past year, the Malaysian ringgit against the dollar, the currency rose 9 , the Thai baht and the rupiah rose over the same period were 11 and 6 .
OCBC Bank economist, said Kaya Di Di Gan, it was clear to the uncertainty of global demand, export oriented Asian economies, resulting in pressure on the situation of economic slowdown could last until 2011. He said, decision making body in the tightening of monetary policy will be more careful.
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